Ничего неожиданного не случилось — только что подписали договор о принятии Крыма в состав Российской Федерации.
Пока всякие диванные либеральные аналитики беснуются в твитере, а сторонники российской государственности сидят на алгебре в школах, почитайте, что пишут умные люди:
The first step was simply making official what has been a reality. Crimea is within the Russian sphere of influence, and the military force Moscow has based in Crimea under treaties could assert control whenever it wished. That Sevastopol is a critical Russian naval base for operations in the Black and Mediterranean seas was not the key. A treaty protected that. But intervention in Crimea was a low-risk, low-cost action that would halt the appearance that Russia was hemorrhaging power. It made Russia appear as a bully in the West and a victor at home. That was precisely the image it wanted to project to compensate for its defeat.
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The most likely strategy Russia will follow is a combination of all of the above: pressure on mainland Ukraine with some limited incursions; working to create unrest in the Baltics, where large Russian-speaking minorities live, and in the Caucasus and Moldova; and pursuing a strategy to prevent Eastern Europe from coalescing into a single entity. Simultaneously, Russia is likely to intervene in areas that are sensitive to the United States while allowing the Ukrainian government to be undermined by its natural divisions.
На мой взгляд, Путин воспользовался предоставившимся случаем и, в известной степени, обратил Майдан себе на пользу. Другой вопрос, насколько теперь Россия готова содержать еще и Крым, который будет обходиться в 88 млрд. рублей в год.
Еще, конечно, интересно, понимают ли крымчане, куда они вошли. По-моему, пока не понимают.
